By-election nominations for the Legislative Council's (Legco) vacant seats are to be accepted from today. The two major camps announced each's own cadidates yesterday. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and New People's Party respectively nominated Vincent Cheng Wing-shun, Bill Tang Ka-piu and Judy Chan Ka-pui to run for seats from the Hong Kong Island, Kowloon West and New Territories East geographical constituencies. The "pan-democrats" also announced the nomination of Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Gary Fan Kwok-wai and Agnes Chow Ting as its candidates to run the by-election in these geographical constituencies according to the results of their "primary election". Now it becomes clear how the two camps will face off in the Legco by-election.
It is never easy to predict the results of an election. But the common aspiration of the people is often the core factor to decide who will win and who will lose. There are still about two months' time in the run-up to the March 11 by-election, but in view of the current overall situation as well as what the "pan-democrats" have been doing, the opposition advocating law-breaking and trouble-making is bound to be strongly countered. So it is by no means impossible for the pro-establishment camp to make a breakthrough as long as it can be united as one and see to election tactics.
The "pan-democrats" face two serious problems this time. The first problem is that they try to dupe public opinion. They have opinionatedly designed a seemingly very scientific "primary election" mechanism: results of on-site voting accounting for 45 per cent, polls by the University of Hong Kong's Public Opinion Programme for another 45%, and party votes for the rest 10%. But everybody can see it that this is a way to manipulate online public opinion with various weight ratios, so as to ensure the candidates "favoured" by the political forces behind the scenes would run out. This is by no means a genuine election, but an out-and-out "foregone conclusion made behind doors". Such candidates produced through "black-box manipulation" are seriously questioned even inside the "pan-democratic" camp, not to mention ordinary citizens. So will they sincerely solicit votes for them?
The second problem lies in that they go against popular will. The "pan-democrats" call out the slogan of "getting back the veto-power in Legco" this time, but "getting back the veto-power" is equivalent to "getting back the filibustering-power". The Legco has just managed to restore its due order, so will rational voters be willing to see the legislature sink into degradation again? Not to mention that of these three nominated candidates, one is a disqualified lawmaker, another is a loser in the previous Legco election, and the third is to run the by-election "on behalf of her boyfriend". The overall quality of these candidates is a world apart from the standard in voters' minds.
Election is always a face-off of people's aspirations. When the "pan-democrats" fool with public opinion to deceive voters, it is already meant they are being cast aside by popular will. On the other hand, although the pro-establishment camp has always been at a disadvantage in geographical-constituency elections, it has two advantages in this upcoming by-election. First of all, it stands on the "vantage point" of public opinion. Their efforts in fighting against filibustering, safeguarding the rule of law and supporting development are highly affirmed and supported by public opinion. Either in the denouncement of the evil advocate for "independence for Hong Kong", or in the revision of the Legco's Rules of Procedure or in the struggle inside the legislature to safeguard the Colocation Arrangement, the pro-establishment camp is on just grounds and with restraint, which complies with public opinion and wins public approval.
More importantly, the pro-establishment camp shows unprecedented solidarity. Elections always rely on the efforts by the teams working behind the scenes. The pro-establishment candidates to run the by-election in the three geographical constituencies are from different parties, but they are all approved and given full support without any controversy. "A team will win that is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks." In view of the pro-establishment camp's performances in past elections, as long as it can proceed steadily and step by step and improve its election tactics – particularly improve its publicity targeting at rational middle-ground voters, it is entirely possible for it to make a breakthrough in the by-election.
Right now, internal strife inside the "pan-democratic" camp gets tough, and it is losing popular support and showing signs of defeat. What is worthy of attention is that while Edward Yiu Chung-yim and Agnes Chow Ting have won out in the pan-democrats' "primary election", it remains uncertain whether they would be qualified by the Returning Officers and pass through the threshold of signing the Confirmation Form. Once the two are denied, it is hard for the pan-democratic camp to avoid being defeated even if it has a Plan B. All in all, the pro-establishment camp is in an advantageous position with popular support. There are reasons to be confident about its performance in the by-election.
16 January 2018
