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中英社評/這是對話的勝利,和平的勝利

時間:2023-03-27 04:25:20來源:大公报

  猶如平地一聲雷,沙特與伊朗在北京對話後宣布達成協議,將恢復雙方外交關係,消息震動世界。世界各國紛紛表示歡迎,聯合國秘書長古特雷斯發表聲明,感謝中國的努力。此次事件對中東地區安全局勢必將產生積極深遠影響,為當前動盪不安的世界提供重大利好消息,並為以和平對話解決相關國際問題樹立了典範。這是中國全球安全倡議的一次成功實踐,展現了中國的大國擔當,開啟了世界新的和平發展進程。

  沙特和伊朗作為兩個中東大國,百年來因宗教等原因結下「世仇」。最近幾年更斷絕了外交關係,一度處於戰爭邊緣。外國媒體曾斷言,在沒有美國主導的前提下,兩國短期內沒有恢復建交的可能性。正因如此,當中國、沙特、伊朗三方聯合聲明公布後,震撼性可想而知。有評論甚至認為,其意義可與1978年的埃以「戴維營協議」和1993年的「巴以協議」相提並論。

  為什麼沙伊可以實現「世紀和解」?這既有兩國對各自利益的現實考慮,更與中國的斡旋角色密不可分。首先,兩國之間的共同利益逐漸大於分歧。美國長期在中東推行分化政策,一方面對伊朗採取極限施壓、全面封堵的做法,另一方面又極力推動沙特對抗伊朗。但時移勢易,隨着美沙關係的微妙變化,沙特認識到繼續同伊朗對抗已越來越不符合自身國家利益,而伊朗也需要打開外交局面,這為各自轉變政策提供了空間。

  另一方面,沙伊同意復交並不是一蹴而就的,而是有着一個較為長期的談判、醞釀的過程。正如在北京對話後公布的聯合聲明所言,伊拉克、阿曼此前也為沙伊承辦過多輪對話。但即便如此,百年來有不少中東國家都曾力圖促進沙伊兩國和解,但無一不以失敗告終,說明這並非達成和解的根本原因。

  決定性的因素在於中國所發揮的積極作用。與美國長期扮演的「破壞者」角色不同,中國在中東地區沒有任何私利,尊重中東國家主人翁地位,反對在中東搞地緣政治競爭。而中國與中東國家廣泛保持着友好關係,過去多年來,通過「一帶一路」倡議等,雙方展開了廣泛的合作,中方的真誠和務實得到各國的高度認可。

  2022年12月,習近平主席對沙特進行國事訪問,並出席中沙、中海、中阿「三環峰會」。今年2月,應習近平主席邀請,伊朗總統萊希對中國進行國事訪問。元首外交對推動對話和談,發揮了至關重要的作用。經過大量細緻、耐心的工作,中國用自身智慧和影響力助力沙伊找到合作對話的最大公約數。正如中共中央政治局委員、中央外辦主任王毅所指出的,這是對話的勝利、和平的勝利。作為一個善意、可靠的斡旋者,中方忠實履行了東道主職責。未來還將繼續根據各國的願望,為妥善處理當今世界的熱點問題發揮建設性作用,展現大國擔當。

  當今世界百年未有之大變局在加速演變,東升西降的趨勢不可逆轉。中國作為中東安全穩定的促進者、發展繁榮的合作者、團結自強的推動者,必將繼續為世界和平貢獻中國智慧和力量。此次沙伊在中國斡旋之下同意恢復建交,讓世界進一步看到了中國全球安全倡議的積極意義和作用,為解決其他衝突樹立了榜樣。

It is a victory for dialogue and a victory for peace

Like a bolt out of the blue, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced, after a dialogue held in Beijing, that they have reached an agreement to reestablish diplomatic relations. The news shook the world. Many countries expressed their welcome. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a statement expressing his appreciation to China. Bound to have a positive and far-reaching impact on the security situation in the Middle East, this event provides a major favourable news for the currently turbulent world and sets an examples for solving relevant international problems through peaceful dialogue. This is a successful practice of China's Global Security Initiative, showing China's commitment as a major country and opening a new course of peaceful development for the world.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, two big countries in the Middle East, have been locked in a century-long feud due to religious and other reasons. Having severed their diplomatic ties in recent several years, they were even once on the verge of war. Foreign media once asserted that there was no possibility for these two countries to restore diplomatic ties without the United States to play a leading role. It is because of this, one can imagine how shocking the impact is when the Joint Tripartite Statement by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran was issued. Some commentaries even maintain that its significance could be put on a par with that of the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel signed in 1978 and the Oslo Accord between Palestine and Israel in 1993.

How come Saudi Arabia and Iran could strike a détente deal after a century-long feud? Surely, the two countries have their realistic considerations out of their own interests, yet this could not have been done without China playing the role as a mediator. First of all, common interests of the two countries become increasingly greater than their differences.  The U.S. has for a long time carried out a division policy in the Middle East. Washington on the one hand adopts the practice of exerting maximum pressure on Iran to comprehensively contain the country, while on the other hand spares no effort to instigate Saudi Arabia to antagonise Iran. Times and things have changed. With subtle changes in U.S.-Saudi Arabia relations, Saudi Arabia has realised that continuing to antagonise Iran becomes increasingly out of accord with its own national interests. Iran also needs to make a breakthrough in its diplomacy. This provides each of them room for manoeuvre to change its policy.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and Iran reaching an agreement to restore diplomatic ties is accomplished not in one stroke but through a rather long process of negotiations and discussions. As mentioned in the Joint Trilateral Statement released after the Beijing dialogue, Iraq and Oman had earlier also hosted rounds of dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And in the past 100 years, quite a few Middle Eastern countries had also made efforts to facilitate reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran but all ended in failure. It is evident that this is not the fundamental reason for the two countries to become reconciled.

A decisive factor lies in the positive role played by China. Different from the "saboteur" role played by the U.S. over a long period of time, China has no self-interest in the Middle East, China respects the "master" status of Middle East countries and is opposed to engaging in geopolitical competition in the Middle East. Maintain friendly relations with Middle Eastern countries extensively, China has over past many years fostered wide-ranging cooperation with them through the Belt and Road Initiative, etc. China's sincerity and pragmatic approach win high recognition in the region.

In December, 2022, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia and successively attended the three Summits between China and Saudi Arabia, China and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and China and Arab States. Invited by President Xi Jinping, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi paid a state visit to China in February. The head-of-state diplomacy has played a crucial part in facilitate dialogue and reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Through a lot of painstaking and patient efforts, China with its own wisdom and influence has helped Saudi Arabia and Iran to find the greatest common divisor for their cooperation and dialogue. As pointed out by Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, it is a victory for dialogue and victory for peace. As a good-faith and reliable mediator, China has earnestly fulfilled its duties as the host. In keeping with its responsibility as a major country and the wishes of the countries concerned, China will continue to play a constructive role in facilitating the proper settlement of hot-spot issues around the world.

Evolution of the situation in our world dominated by changes unseen in a century keeps accelerating, and the general trend of the East rising and the West declining becomes irreversible. China, as a facilitator for security and stability in the Middle East, a cooperator for development and prosperity and a promotor for solidarity and self-improvement, is bound to continue contributing its wisdom and strength to world peace. This time, mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to reestablish diplomatic tie. Setting an example for solving other conflicts, this enables the world to see the positive significance and effect of China's Global Security Initiative.

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